Breaking Down Trump’s Plan To Steal The Election (And Why It’s Failing)
Isaw this coming. As President Trump denigrated vote-by-mail and installed crony Louis DeJoy as Postmaster General, his unsubtle plan to manipulate the election came into focus. I called it out in July, and again, step-by-step, in August:
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https://www.reddit.com/r/2020nbadraftlivetv/
https://www.reddit.com/r/2020nbadraftlivetv/comments/jwpxd6/officiallivestream_2020_nba_draft_live/
https://www.reddit.com/r/2020nbadraftlivetv/comments/jwpz2k/nba_draft_2020_mock_live_free_by_reddit/
https://www.reddit.com/r/2020nbadraftlivetv/comments/jwq0wt/officiallivestream_nba_draft_2020_live/
Now we’re seeing the last step play out, with Trump and his allies spreading lies, conspiracy theories, and false insinuations about voter fraud. There are a few isolated cases, as there always are — a registered Republican in Pennsylvania got caught requesting an absentee ballot for his dead mother — but no evidence of the widespread, outcome-affecting fraud they’re alleging.
At the risk of pointing out the obvious, a real plot to fake thousands of votes across multiple states would take a lot of people. And they’d have to do a lot of unusual things in front of local officials, poll watchers, and various government workers, all of whom have smartphones.
The lack of evidence, along with the spectacle of Trumpists making laughably implausible accusations and touting a supposed whistleblower who then recanted to federal investigators, is enough to invalidate the theory.
But only because the election wasn’t close. Biden didn’t just flip Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania; he added Arizona and Georgia too. And none of them are nail-biters. With over 99 percent counted, Biden is ahead by more than 10,000 in each of the five swing states. To put that in perspective, the 2000 election came down to 537 votes in Florida.
Biden’s strong showing thwarted Step 5. Trump never led on Election Night. The narrative was going the president’s way as Florida went for him early, but the media, exercising greater caution due to coronavirus-related uncertainty, kept Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania “too early to call.” At 11:20 PM, Fox News called Arizona for Biden. By the next day, the Democratic candidate was ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan. Even without Pennsylvania or Georgia, that was enough to win.
Step 5 didn’t happen, but they’re doing Steps 6 & 7 anyway, falsely claiming Trump won and trying to disenfranchise mail-in votes. Even after ballot counting put the contest out of reach and all the networks called it for Biden, the president kept refusing to acknowledge the results. Instead, he’s made or amplified evidence-challenged accusations of fraud, while his campaign and its allies have filed 16 lawsuits (so far).
As with Trump’s other Big Lies, the Republican establishment first hesitated to push an obvious fiction. But Trump kept hammering it, his biggest supporters — including popular figures in professional and social media — went along with it, and much of the Republican party got on board. 2024 presidential hopefuls, such as Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), and party leaders, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, have joined the effort to cast doubt on the results. Attorney General William Barr issued a memo authorizing investigations of “vote tabulation irregularities,” changing long-standing Justice Department rules limiting FBI involvement before states certify their counts.
“Read the Transcript” is Trump’s Big Lie
Breaking down the classic propaganda technique at the heart of Trump’s impeachment defense
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Trump and the GOP’s post-election actions confirm suspicions that their plan was to try to steal the election if they didn’t win. Thanks to nearly 80 million Biden voters, especially those in swing states, America dodged a bullet. If the race were actually close, like the 2000 election, the United States could’ve been thrown into chaos.
It looks like the Trump campaign wanted the election to come down to Pennsylvania. Trump’s been casting aspersions on the state for months, especially its biggest city. In the first debate, for example, the president made baseless insinuations about polling places, claiming that “bad things happen in Philadelphia, bad things.” He repeatedly declared that it would be unfair if Pennsylvania counted mail-in ballots after Election Day and threatened legal action. In a widely criticized opinion, Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh argued that states should announce results quickly because finishing the count could “flip” the result and create “suspicions of impropriety.” Meanwhile, Republicans successfully blocked efforts to change Pennsylvania’s rules to facilitate an early start on tabulating mail-in ballots, which Florida and other fast-counting states already have. As a result, many Pennsylvania counties tallied in-person votes Election Night, and started counting mail-ins the next day.
As a result, Election Night ended with Trump ahead in Pennsylvania. The president stuck to the plan, issuing lie-filled messages like this (which Twitter labeled misinformation):
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Pennsylvania kept counting, and Biden took the lead three days later. In the meantime, Trump stayed on message, Trumpist media joined in, campaign lawyers filed suit, and protesters appeared at vote-counting locations. Less than an hour before mail-in ballots put Biden ahead, the president demanded “STOP THE COUNT!”
I don’t know if this election-stealing plan could’ve worked, but it would’ve stood a better chance if they could’ve focused on one state. At minimum, it would’ve created greater uncertainty.
If Trump had won Arizona and Georgia, and it all came down to Pennsylvania, there would’ve been more media attention on narrower (though still unsupported) accusations of fraud. We might have seen direct action, like 2000’s “Brooks Brothers riot,” in which Republican protestors — organized by current Trumpists Roger Stone and Matt Schlapp — disrupted recounts in Florida. The Justice Department probably would’ve acted more quickly. Perhaps a court would’ve issued an order to stop the count pending investigations (which Trump would try to tilt in his favor). Basically Bush v. Gore squared.
But instead of focusing on a single message in Pennsylvania, pro-Trump protestors ended up chanting “stop the count” in Michigan and “count the votes” in Arizona. Instead of trying to argue that something bad happened in Philadelphia, Trump is left pushing nonsensical theories of a vast conspiracy. And while the Supreme Court might have intervened to break a tie in Trump’s favor, as they did for Bush in 2000 by stopping the recount in Florida, they have no interest in overturning clear election results.
13 Post-Election Reasons I Feel Relieved
Vote counting isn’t over and challenges remain, but things are looking up
arcdigital.media
Trump has already lost or withdrawn most of the lawsuits, but they were always longshots. Much like he used the legal system throughout his business career, such as when he stiffed contractors, the lawsuits mostly exist to create pressure; to take time and force Trump’s adversaries to spend resources. And in this case, lawsuits provide a pretext to push Trump’s preferred narrative, which is similar to his failed scheme to get the president of Ukraine to announce, but not necessarily conduct, an investigation into the Bidens. It’s primarily an informational strategy, something for Trump to use when fighting in his favorite arena — the media — rather than a legal strategy dependent on victory in court.
The biggest clue is that none of the Trump campaign’s post-election lawsuits allege mass voter fraud, and many don’t concern fraud at all. For example, in what may have been the most significant case, the campaign challenged Pennsylvania’s extended deadline for absentee ballots. They lost in district court, that loss was upheld on appeal in a circuit court led by conservative judges. And Biden won Pennsylvania before those late votes were counted, so even if Trump won the case (which he didn’t) or the Supreme Court stepped in to overrule lower courts (which they probably won’t) it wouldn’t change the outcome.
Trump has conducted his presidency as if he’s the producer and star of the world’s greatest reality show, and relied on friendly media to venerate him and demonize his opponents. That’s why the reelection campaign got so angry when Fox News called Arizona for Biden, with presidential son-in-law Jared Kushner asking Fox owner Rupert Murdoch to reverse it, and Trumpists attacking the head of Fox’s decision desk, Arnon Mishkin: It undermined the alternative reality they were trying to create. Even worse, it came from someone Team Trump expected to help sell the lie.
But He’s Still Doing It
Trump lost the election, it wasn’t close enough to steal, lawsuits are getting knocked down fast, election officials in every state say they haven’t seen signs of mass fraud, world leaders are congratulating Biden, the media is calling him president-elect, and Biden’s acting like a winning candidate usually does, picking top staffers and announcing plans. And yet, Trump not only refuses to acknowledge the results, he’s throwing around very serious accusations of fraud (without facts to back them up).
These lies won’t keep Trump in power. There’s no mechanism for it. The states will certify Biden’s victory — Republican-controlled state legislatures in Pennsylvania or Wisconsin aren’t somehow switching electors to Trump, and even if they did it wouldn’t hold up — and Trump will lose all legal authority on January 20. The military isn’t overthrowing American democracy for this guy. And they’re not going to execute an illegal order, nor jump to follow various shady but technically legal orders from the cronies this lame duck president just installed in top Pentagon positions.
There’s a chance Trump thinks he can find a way to stay president, but I doubt it. As I wrote in July, his main skill isn’t winning; it is, as his many bankruptcies show, ensuring that the brunt of his losses fall on others.
That’s most likely what he’s doing here, setting himself up for the future, not caring about the consequences for anyone else. He’s already fundraising off stolen election claims, though the first $8,000 anyone donates goes entirely to Trump’s new super PAC or the Republican National Committee, not any legal defense fund, and much of the rest goes towards paying down campaign debt. Trump will probably maintain these lies for years, stoking his followers’ sense of grievance.
He’s sending fundraising texts:
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And fundraising emails:
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Biden won Michigan by more than 145,000 votes. The thing Trump’s email claims happened “almost as if it was magic” is known in the real world as counting votes from Detroit, which, like many densely populated areas, usually takes longer. But, unfortunately, it’s safe to say many of the people receiving these and similar fundraising requests don’t realize they’re being conned.
As political scientist Erica de Bruin argues, this isn’t a coup. There’s no forceful seizure of power. It’s better understood as democratic backsliding.
The leaders of a major political party reject the democratic legitimacy of an election because they didn’t win and are spreading lies to rationalize their tantrum. Trump may be lying to salve his ego, retain influence, and extract money from supporters. Republican officials may be going along with the lie because it riles up voters, and because they’re craven opportunists afraid of a mean tweet from the president. But many average Republicans will believe the lie, and it’ll fester, hardening into gospel in some right-wing circles, a myth that “everyone knows” is true.
This is abnormal, dangerous behavior unbefitting an American president, or any leader in a democracy. It’s distinctly different from average voters getting upset that their preferred candidate lost and fantasizing about miracles, like faithless electors, as they process the outcome.
Lies and conspiracy theories won’t overturn the results of the election, and Trump’s influence will shrink when he’s out of office. But he’ll retain quite a bit, and it appears he intends to use that influence to attack American democracy for personal gain, no matter what it does to the country.
